Reliable modeling of CPU usage in an office worker environment

摘要

In this paper, we present a novel and realistic model formodelling CPU usage of virtual machines on a cloud. Themodel is based on considering the CPU consumption of avirtual machine as a one generated from a Hidden MarkovModel (HMM). The model assumes that the hidden layer(Markov chain) is inhomogeneous and depends on the timeof day. In addition the model assumes that the observationsfollow an autoregressive process. The deviations from stan-dard HMMs are motivated by the properties of real CPUconsumption data. The HMM model replicate the proper-ties of the real CPU consumption data in a very realistic wayand outperform both AR(1) and AR(2) models in predictingtime ahead CPU consumption.